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Friday, August 6, 2010

AMLN continues to evoke doubt

Two days ago AMLN pushed to the upside, closing above the 2 month consolidation in the $18-$20 range. So screens lit up, bells range, and investors turned more bullish to buy the breakout, right?  Uh Uh.  It was greeted with 936 Calls to 7,279 Puts or a daily 0.13 Call/Put ratio, taking the 10 day average down to 0.87 - the lowest reading in over 6 months. A contrarian's dream. This is reminiscent of when LCC was beginning its big rally from $3 last December and short interest and the Put/Call ratio rose with the stock through $4, then $5 and so on.  There were occasional sharp pullbacks, but LCC quickly snapped back.

Evidently, with AMLN this move above $20 is greeted as the selling opportunity of a lifetime.  My premise remains that with a bedrock of skepticism from both analysts and traders despite a relative strength (RS) of 86,  in the face of reasonable fundamentals, with the bonus of AMLN being an increasingly scarce and desirable asset to large foreign pharma, particularly those armed with a strong Yen that want access to the US market with a big drug  in an unmet medical need and a sales force, sets up a favorable risk-reward position.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=AMLN&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=t23263972693&r=2692

8 comments:

  1. Thinking thurday's bearish call / Put couldn't be outdone, despite AMLN holding strong and positive during the early market sell off and snapping to the highs of the day when the market reversed, it was again greeted with 196 Calls to 838 Puts or 0.23 taking the 10-day Call/Put ratio to 0.64, the lowest reading since Oct 2009 when the stock was below $14. The breakout of the $18-$20 range is being greeted with disbelief and doubt. The PDUFA date is Oct 22nd so FDA approval and labeling is expected between now and then

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  2. it was a good fundamental bear call two years ago when everyone had a GLP-1 and Bydureon looked to fail - with Bydureon set for approval and competitors falling like flies...

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